The Green Alternative Plan
A Proposal for a Renewable Energy Solution
Made in Ontario
Prepared
by
Ian Hanna, Kent Hawkins and Henri Garand
March 2009
Preamble
The Green Alternative Plan (GAP) is an initiative to reshape Ontario’s energy future. While recognizing the demands for and constraints on energy as the province’s population grows and nonrenewable supplies decline, it envisages an Ontario which relies on renewable energy produced from small-scale green technologies, and it draws on the public’s environmental consciousness and desire to “think global, act local”. GAP enlists homeowners by enabling them to install solar, wind and geothermal equipment, and thereby achieves a province-wide sustainable energy solution. This home-based alternative to industrial energy projects literally empowers individuals and families to take responsibility for their own electrical and heating usage, as well as to contribute towards community electrical needs.
Vision
By focusing on grass roots development and relying on an established network of small businesses, the Green Alternative Plan will make Ontario a world leader in individual energy conservation as well as generation and use of renewable energy, creating thousands of local jobs, boosting the provincial economy, and contributing to energy security and climate stabilization.
Purpose
The Green Alternative Plan addresses Ontarians’ environmental and economic concerns as well as expectations for a secure and prosperous future. To take up these challenges GAP will
- Develop a sustainable energy economy based on mass participation. At a time when the traditional economy has weakened, Ontarians are interested in new approaches that offer long-term solutions to energy needs. While GAP uses the strength of a market economy, it does so at the direct consumer level. It does not depend on benefits trickling down from industrial development (like wind plants); it creates economic demand and provides stimulus from the bottom up.
- Preserve the environment without the need to alter environmental assessment processes or regulations. The majority of Ontarians believe renewable energy technologies are environmentally friendly, but this applies only to small-scale applications. Industrial energy developments, like large wind plants, always have environmental impacts and trigger local opposition. Home-based applications, however, can be deployed expeditiously because they do not conflict with existing environmental standards and regulations. There is no necessity for procedural or legislative changes to facilitate development.
- Alleviate climate change by reducing fossil fuel usage for both electricity and heating. Perhaps the greenest technologies are small-scale solar, wind and geothermal installations. The latter is particularly useful because it displaces not just electrical heating but natural gas and oil. The inclusion of geothermal increases the effectiveness of GAP in controlling CO2 emissions.
- Empower individual homeowners. Ontario homeowners have a vested interest in securing a reliable and cost-effective supply of energy. With the raising of environmental awareness, they are strongly motivated to choose green technologies that will provide sustainable, personal solutions to energy needs. GAP is both philosophically and politically appealing because it democratizes environmental culture.
- Foster a manufacturing sector for solar panels, small wind turbines, and geothermal heating. Ontario does not have to rely exclusively on foreign manufacturers to supply small-scale green technologies; it already has a dispersed domestic industry which can grow rapidly with the right market conditions. Moreover, the economic stimulus received by the domestic industry will build confidence and capacity, and encourage export sales. By contrast, the manufacture of industrial-scale wind turbines would have to be started virtually from scratch and then have to compete worldwide in order to remain viable.
- Build a province-wide installation and service sector for green energy. Beyond manufacturing jobs, the demand for home-based green technologies will require thousands of well-paid trained installation and maintenance workers. Both the numbers and duration of jobs dwarf anything promised by industrial wind development.
Core Components of the Green Alternative Plan
The Green Alternative Plan consists of three key parts: a loan program, selected green technologies, and a net metering connection to the electrical utility grid. Together these provide a practical, cost-effective means of power generation and distribution.
Loan Program
Participating homeowners qualify for an interest-free loan up to $25,000, secured by a mortgage and repayable over twenty years or upon sale of their homes. The loan program will facilitate the installation of a variety of small-scale green energy technologies by making them affordable for many homeowners, and over time it is intended to make them become common home systems. Though starting as a financial incentive to individual homeowners, the program will lead to home buyers routinely accepting the cost of these technologies as part of market value pricing.
Selected Technologies
Homeowners may choose one or several technologies to supply their electrical and heating needs. Solar panels can be used to heat hot water and run electrical pumps as well as light homes. Small wind turbines can complement solar panels and provide excess capacity for personal battery storage systems and for off loading onto the electrical grid. Geothermal systems can replace natural gas or oil-burning furnaces and also work as air conditioners.
Homeowners will select and purchase equipment from local suppliers at market pricing. Over time, as manufacturers fill demand, prices will no doubt moderate due to economies of scale, and larger home systems may be purchased for the amount of the loan.
Although this proposal identifies several selected technologies, the GAP sets no restrictions on the small-scale renewable energy technologies to be considered. It also does not intend to restrict the applicability of such installations but sees them in homes, farms, institutions and businesses as well as small community clusters. References to specific technologies are the result of the limitations of our time and ability to compile and document information.
Net Metering
The deployment of small-scale green technologies is not intended to move participating homes off the electrical grid. Many homes may still be net consumers of electricity because of the limitations of home-based systems. On the other hand, homeowners who have installed large solar or wind systems may be able to produce more electrical power than they can conveniently store. If GAP homes are connected to the grid with net meters, they may all become-at some time-electrical distributors to the community. To facilitate distribution, electrical utilities may have to increase substation capacity and reengineer local grids. Participating homeowners must be given priority rights of access, and utilities must be obligated to connect GAP projects.
Relationship of GAP to the Proposed Green Energy Act
Critique of the Green Energy Act
We believe that the likely outcome of the Green Energy Act will be an emphasis on industrial-scale wind implementations in Ontario. Our belief is founded on the public pronouncements of senior provincial government officials (including reference to ill-advised offshore wind implementations), proposals put forward by the Green Energy Act coalition (which includes the David Suzuki Institute, the Pembina Institute, the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association and others), expectations raised by media coverage, the labelling of industrial wind opponents who have valid concerns with the pejorative term NIMBY, and the substance of CanWEA promotional activities.
Further, industrial wind plants are relatively easy for the Ontario government to support because developers do most of the work and arrange for the necessary financing and because they play to misinformed conventional wisdom. All the government has to do is provide a favourable enabling environment, including premium prices over a long contract period, in order to gain the political benefits. Industrial wind will put in place large amounts of capacity (but little usable electricity production) with large structures, which have the advantage of being highly observable signs that the Green Energy Act is “working”. But industrial-scale wind turbine installations will not provide the number of promised jobs or economic stimulus.
Similarities and Differences with the Green Energy Act
The Green Alternative Plan is an independent proposal for meeting Ontario’s energy needs, but it is not incompatible with parts of the Green Energy Act. Like the GEA, it rests on the strength of local communities, and it would necessitate changes in the electrical utility infrastructure and regulatory control. Specifically, individual homeowners participating in GAP would require net metering and access to the grid for sale of excess power. GAP is also compatible with genuine community projects for energy development of the types and scale common in Denmark and Germany. Such developments derive from local initiatives, principally serve local needs, and are under local control. GAP is a replacement, however, for industrial projects, chiefly wind development, which benefit often foreign investors, create divisiveness within rural communities, and alter the character of rural Ontario. GAP is emphatically small scale and is focused on the individual family’s role in effecting economic and environmental change while meeting personal and community energy needs.
To explain the merits of the GAP and to distinguish it from Green Energy Act’s implicit emphasis on industrial wind power, the discussion which follows will frequently analyze these competing approaches to renewable energy.
Rationale for the Green Alternative Plan
Background
The rationale for the Green Alternative Pan is based on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), public support for conservation, and the benefits of green economics.
Any consideration of reducing overall GHG must take into account the amounts released by the various economic sectors. In Canada, in descending order, industry and transportation (both by a considerable margin), electricity generation, commercial, agriculture and residential sectors are the chief emitters.
To assist in this analysis, Table 1 provides a sectoral comparison of GHG emissions for Canada, the U.S. and Germany. There are various ways of representing the breakdown: for example, by targeting end use (which eliminates a separate electricity generation sector) or by combining all energy use for space heating and industrial processes. Although some difficulty was experienced in finding comparative numbers, any slight adjustments will not alter the essential conclusions we wish to draw.
Table 1 – 2006 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Million Tonnes of CO2e
|
Canada |
U.S. |
Germany |
|||
mt CO2e |
% |
mt CO2e |
% |
mt CO2e |
% |
|
Electricity Generation |
117 |
16.3% |
2,400 |
33.6% |
270 |
31.4% |
Transportation |
190 |
26.5% |
1,950 |
27.3% |
163 |
19.0% |
Industrial |
274 |
38.2% |
1,400 |
19.6% |
254 |
29.5% |
Commercial |
33 |
4.9% |
450 |
6.3% |
52 |
6.0% |
Agriculture |
62 |
8.6% |
550 |
7.7% |
77 |
9.0% |
Residential |
40 |
5.6% |
400 |
5.6% |
43 |
5.0% |
Totals |
718 |
100% |
7,150 |
100% |
859 |
100% |
The important message from Table 1 is that in the U.S. and Germany electricity generation is the largest contributor to GHG emissions. In Canada it is well behind the transportation and industrial sectors. It is therefore appropriate for the U.S. and Germany to concentrate on electricity generation in the reduction of GHG emissions, and for Canada to concentrate on the transportation and industrial sectors.
Given this difference, why does government emphasis in Canada fall so heavily on electricity generation? Why does electricity generation, and industrial wind power in particular, attract so much attention, at least in the minds of the public, media and environmental organizations? And why are we preoccupied with renewable energy sources when our problem is not supply but extremely wasteful demand?
Despite these reservations and in deference to the current conventional wisdom in Canada, the GAP nonetheless addresses the electricity generation sector. But energy efficiency/conservation should be the major method in terms of results (reduced electricity generation and hence reduced environmental impact), investment needed and economic development. Much has been written on this subject, for example by Torrie Smith Associates and the Pembina Institute, and our small group cannot presume to add substantially to the body of this information.
For simplicity, in the GAP the term “conservation” will be used to encompass energy efficiency and conservation measures in electricity generation and will include all measures that reduce demand. The term has a greater connotation of end-user responsibility and activity, which is very desirable and critical to success. An important subcomponent is any set of measures that reduce demand on the grid and central generation resources of the electricity system as a result of small-scale generation systems with storage capabilities. Users report a natural inclination to a conservation culture. The term “energy efficiency” will be used generally to encompass energy efficiency and conservation measures in all sectors.
So, setting aside electricity conservation, we now come to the basis for the GAP proposal. Given the preoccupation of Canadians with saving the world through our electricity systems, and necessarily using renewable energy sources (substantially industrial-scale wind implementation), the GAP provides a means of meeting this pent-up desire in a different manner and with more beneficial impact, especially in terms of economic growth in sustainable industries that would have a considerable domestic market. Meeting Canada’s domestic market demand would provide the basis for subsequent expansion into international markets with products which can compete successfully. By contrast, the manufacturing of large-scale industrial turbines is sheer folly. Canadians would never consider competing with the U.S. in large commercial airliners or in establishing an independent car manufacturing industry.
Industrial Development
According to a recent U.S. study by Management Information Services, Inc. (MISI), the economic opportunities in the areas of energy efficiency and renewable energy are substantial in the U.S. and by 2030 could provide employment equivalent to 17 per cent of the work force. Scaling the U.S. projections (based on population) to revenue and job opportunities for Canada and Ontario, the opportunities are shown in Table 2.
Table 2 – Economic Development by 2030
|
Revenue |
Jobs Created |
||
|
Canada |
Ontario |
Canada |
Ontario |
Energy Efficiency/Conservation |
$403 billion |
$159 billion |
3,200,000 |
1,300,000 |
Renewable Energy |
$60 billion |
$24 billion |
790,000 |
310,000 |
Table 3, again scaled from U.S. data, lists the number of jobs for a selection of renewable energy sources.
Table 3 – Selection of Jobs by Renewable Energy Type
Energy Source |
Canada |
Ontario |
Comments |
Biomass Power |
153,000 |
60,000 |
|
Solar |
133,000 |
53,000 |
|
Wind |
112,000 |
44,000 |
Export dependent for industrial-scale turbines. In GAP this includes a large small-scale turbine component. |
Fuel Cells |
54,000 |
21,000 |
|
Hydrogen |
45,000 |
18,000 |
With respect to wind, the jobs shown in Table 3 would be dependent upon export markets. For example, the Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA) projects 52,000 “green collar jobs” for Canada by 2025 assuming a massive 55,000 MW of industrial wind implementation before export potential is considered. This is about one-half of the 112,000 jobs projected for wind in Canada, which presumably include both export and small-scale wind components. The same consideration applies to Ontario numbers. The question remains as to how much CanWEA has allowed for small-scale wind installations, if any.
In any event, as will be shown later in Table 8, wind represents 3 per cent of the total for both the energy efficiency and renewable energy sectors, and just 14 per cent of the renewables.
Also, noteworthy is that the fuel cell/hydrogen components combined provide about the same level of jobs as wind, with substantially greater prospects for further growth.
In summary, economic development is the major benefit of the GAP. According to existing projections, renewable energy sources other than industrial-scale wind will provide greater industrial development and jobs. As important, this development will be in industries with substantially greater sustainability and future opportunities for Canada than industrial-scale wind.
The U.S. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
As further support for the GAP, the following are the salient characteristics of the recent Obama administration’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009:
- Applied research and development activities in energy, storage technologies, grid technologies (We agree)
- Deployment of a wide range of technologies with an emphasis on small-scale installations of renewable energy systems; for example, the installation of fuel cells, solar, wind and biomass power projects at government buildings (This is totally in line with the nature of our proposal.)
- Greater tax credits for manufacturers of clean energy technologies (We agree especially for small-scale system manufacturers as these will provide the most sustainable industrial companies for Canada.)
- Programs to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, including stricter building codes (We agree)
- Training programs for careers in energy efficiency and renewable energy (We agree)
- Analysis of the national grid for needed improvements, including the integration of demand-response equipment and smart grid technologies (We agree)
- Small-scale smart grid demonstration projects (We definitely agree and urge this as part of our proposal.)
- Interest free financing for clean energy projects backed by Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (We agree and have suggested something similar in our proposal.)
- And yes, the Production Tax Credit for most renewable energy facilities, including industrial-scale wind, will be extended for a few more years. This is an unavoidable political consideration. (No comment)
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Green Energy Initiatives
The GAP emphasizes small-scale renewable energy sources in order to optimize a range of environmental and socio-economic benefits. The characteristics of truly effective green energy initiatives for Canada and Ontario are those that
- Have significant opportunities for sustainable industrial development in terms of the environment and economic development, especially employment opportunities, just to meet domestic demand
- Have significant opportunities for environmental benefits, including reducing GHG emissions
- Use sustainable energy sources
- Have, above all, a strong domestic market, which could be later expanded to international markets
- Do not attempt to compete against giants in the international market.
- Do not over-emphasize any one technology
- Focus on economic sectors that will have the greatest impact.
Within the electricity sector two major areas have the necessary characteristics:
- Conservation, consisting of any measures that reduce consumption.
- Small-scale installations of distributed renewable electricity generation systems on residences, farms, institutions, and businesses, including clusters of such installations (community systems). It is in this area that real distributed renewable, green energy solutions are found. The primary purpose of such installations should be to meet local demand and reduce load on central generation and grid resources as opposed to supplying the grid for consumption elsewhere.
Table 4 summarizes important factors for a selection of initiatives within the electricity generation sector as well as, for comparative purposes, the transportation and industry sectors. Industry sustainability is a measure of the long-term viability of an initiative considering Canada’s domestic market and competition in international markets against large players such as the U.S. and China in industrial-scale wind turbines. Further, there is the consideration that some initiatives (industrial-scale wind turbine manufacture, for example) would be easy targets for buy-out by large international companies, leaving Canada hostage to the competence of these corporations and their overall global interests and welfare. Economic benefits include business creation, revenues and jobs. Environmental benefits are for all aspects of the environment, not the least of which is greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Smart-grid technologies will likely become an important aspect of electricity distribution in the distant future, and small-scale renewable energy installations will be a more natural fit than generation plants whose primary purpose is to feed the grid as opposed to supplying electricity primarily for local consumption.
Table 4 – Summary of Important Factors
Conservation |
Small-scale Renewables |
Industrial Wind |
Transportation |
Industry |
|
Industry Sustainability | Yes √ | Yes √ |
No |
Yes √ | Yes √ |
Economic Benefits | Yes √ | Medium √ |
Small |
Yes √ | Yes √ |
Environment Benefits | Yes √ | Small |
None |
Yes√ | Yes √ |
Fossil Fuel Savings | Yes √ | Small |
None |
Yes √ | Yes √ |
Complements Smart Grid | Yes √ | Yes √ |
Small |
n/a | n/a |
Political Benefits | Yes √ | Yes √ |
Yes √ |
? | ? |
Ease of Implementation | No | No |
Yes √ |
No | No |
The first factor, sustainability of an industry, as already indicated, is a sufficiently important economic benefit that it has been given separate category status. In part this relates to the extent of the domestic market for related products and services and the possibility for important technology developments. For small-scale renewables it is shown as positive, although not as significant as conservation or opportunities in other industry sectors.
Economic benefits include meaningful numbers of business development (manufacturing and services) and job opportunities in important new aspects of our economy. Industrial wind is shown as small because of the relatively limited job creation opportunities compared to the other renewable energy sources individually and combined. The pay-off in economic terms is just not there. The term small recognizes that jobs will be created, but not very noteworthy by comparison, and likely not sustainable as indicated by the first factor.
The contention that wind power offers no environmental benefits and fossil fuel savings can be substantiated but would require an extensive explanation, which is not given here. We would be pleased to enter into such discussions if necessary.
Smart grids will be an important development in the electricity sector. They will facilitate a truly distributed generation providing local consumption and including storage capabilities. These micro-grids foster a strong element of self-sufficiency and sharing at the community level and, when necessary, with the broader electricity grid elements. It is vital to start implementing technologies that can take advantage of future smart-grid deployments.
With respect to implementation, it is recognized that the GAP’s broad program is not as straightforward as industrial-scale wind plants and government must participate in the financing to make the program happen. However, without question, the GAP passes the test of feasibility:
- Technological Feasibility – The proposed program uses currently available technologies, many of which offer significant opportunities for further development and effective participation in international markets.
- Operational Feasibility – The beginnings of the necessary industry infrastructure are already present and need scaling to the levels proposed.
- Financial Feasibility – This will be demonstrated in the following section.
GAP in Operation: Financing and Cost Analysis
Green Assistance Policy
The essential proposal is that the government provides significant funding in the form of grants and interest-free loans to end users who wish to participate in a small-scale renewable energy program. Each program year establishes a 20-year term for end-user participants governed by expected technology lifetimes and end-user payment terms. The program can be repeated for as many years as the government sees fit, and could be discontinued or modified by the government for new end user participants at any time. Program changes would most likely occur when the associated technologies become more affordable to end users.
The end users would own the installed equipment and pay a small monthly fee over the 20-year term. It is assumed the life of the equipment would be 20 years except in the case of small wind turbines (for which a provision has been made for replacement in 10 years). The end user would be responsible, if necessary, for replacing any equipment installed through the program. The most likely need for replacement would be storage batteries, but this technology could advance rapidly enough to make the cost acceptable.
In the event the program attracts more applicants than can be handled in any year, some means would have to be established to limit participation: for example, first-come first-served or by a lottery.
The elements of the Green Assistance Policy are as follows:
- A financial support program is established for individual householders, farmers, institutions or businesses, including small community clusters, providing grants and interest-free loans for the purchase of small-scale renewable energy systems. The examples assume users are already connected to the grid, but there is no reason why remote locations without grid access cannot participate.
- The loans and grants could be packaged as government securities (Green Energy Bonds) and sold to financial institutions or other investors who would accept a lower rate as their contribution to green industrial development and environment protection. Possibly there could also be tax benefits that provide the interest component in whole or in part.
- Electricity system users will have a surcharge of 1.5 cents per KWh to assist in financing the programs. This may appear to be an onerous measure, but the overall costs are in line with other less effective technologies, especially industrial-scale wind power.
- As a separate measure the needs of small businesses which will be suppliers have to be assessed and financial assistance provided in terms of grants, tax incentives, loans or loan guarantees.
- The maintenance costs of the systems will be borne by the government, with the provisions made for cost recovery.
- At the end of 20 years for each end-user group, the program could be repeated, or alternatively, with product development, the lower costs of new systems could be totally borne by end users.
Definitions
Within the GAP model described in this section certain terms are defined as follows:
“end user” means a household which is participating in the GAP by installing a renewable energy system or combination of systems.
“each year’s installations” means the total number of installations implemented each year the GAP is in operation.
“GAP program” means the total of all the installations over the period that the GAP is in operation.
Basic Financial Aspects of GAP
The GAP’s financial model is based on individual Ontario householders who are participating in the program by installing any or all of several renewable energy technologies. The size of grants and loans will vary with their choices and household needs, but for illustrative purposes the combined amounts involved will typically be $30,000 for small wind turbine installations, $21,500 for solar panels, $5,100 for solar water heating, and $18,000 for geothermal. Grants and loans might therefore total $75,000 per household.
Although this section shows how the GAP could work, it is not a prescription but an illustration of the financial feasibility of the GAP, and it supplies additional details to support the policy proposals.
The basic assumptions for the model are shown in Table 5.
Table 5 – Assumptions for Each Year’s Installations
Assumption |
Amount/Description |
Comments |
Term for each installation (or each year’s end-user group of participants) |
20 years |
Relates to loan repayment and equipment life |
Renewable energy systems modeled |
Small-scale wind Solar PV Solar Water Heating Geothermal |
End user may select any combination |
Number of households participating each year of the program |
10,000 households |
For each renewable energy system |
Surcharge to all electricity system residential customers for support of green energy initiatives |
$0.015 per KWh |
|
Government grants to end users |
70% of system costs |
Based on the first year’s system costs |
Interest free loans to end users |
30% of systems costs |
Based on the first year’s system costs |
Annual maintenance costs |
1% of systems costs |
Based on the first year’s system costs |
Discount rate for financing of grants and loans |
5% |
|
Green Energy Bond term |
10 years |
|
Loaded costs of each government employee |
$100,000 |
For program administration |
For more details see Appendix A.
Effect on Individual Household by Selected System Type
The model was adjusted to make the effect roughly revenue neutral to the end user for each system. The results are based on uniform treatment for each renewable energy system type, and this should be customized for each. Table 6 is for an average household use of 9,000 KWh per year.
Table 6 – Annual Net Costs (Savings) for Individual End User by System Type
|
Net annual increased cost (saving) |
Comments |
Wind with Battery Storage (5KW) |
$112 |
Financials assume turbine replacement after 10 years |
PV Solar with Battery Storage (2KW) |
$150 |
|
Solar Thermal (medium system) |
($44) |
|
Geothermal (2 ton) |
$101 |
|
Cost to all residential electricity customers per household for surcharge of $0.015 per KWh |
$135 |
Some, or all, of these costs could be offset through conservation.
Table 7 provides a summary of the total program costs cumulative to 2030.
Table 7 – Summary of Proposed Program to 2030
($millions) |
Item |
Amount |
Totals |
Costs | Capital and Financing Costs |
$16,800 |
|
Maintenance |
$2,300 |
|
|
Program Administration |
$1,200 |
$20,300 |
|
Recoveries | Annual surcharge to all electricity customers |
$17,500 |
|
End user payments |
$2,800 |
$20,300 |
|
Net Costs |
|
$0 |
For a full understanding of the financial calculations see the full financial model in Appendix A.
Although the GAP achieves zero net costs, it does so principally by means of a surcharge on all residential electricity consumers. This is based on the perception that Ontarians want renewable energy solutions and should be prepared to pay for them. Such solutions will be expensive no matter what sources are involved. Within RE sources, this proposal is a better engagement of Ontarians and better use of funding than strategies involving industrial-scale wind projects, which include the costs of backup generation, grid interconnection and upgrades, expensive off-shore wind installation, and eventual decommissioning.
GAP and Economic Benefits: Job Creation
The Green Energy Plan delivers a direct economic stimulus to renewable energy supply and service businesses and is especially powerful in creating new jobs. Using a report by U.S.-based Management Information Services Inc. (MISI), Table 8 projects the job potential for Ontario in the Energy Efficiency (EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) sectors.
Table 8 – Overview of Job Projections for Ontario
Category |
2030 Total Jobs |
Per Year |
Per Cent |
EE |
1,270,000 |
53,500 |
78% |
RE |
310,000 |
15,500 |
22% |
Total |
1,580,000 |
69,000 |
|
Wind Component of RE |
44,000 |
2,200 |
3% |
The annual projection is linear but provides a quick indicator of the number of jobs that can be expected for any year between 2009 and 2030. Note the preponderance of jobs in the EE sector.
Note also that job projection for wind is approximately double CanWEA’s for Canada by 2025 if 55,000 MW of wind capacity is installed domestically. CanWEA states that exports would increase its number. But is this a realistic expectation given current competition from Germany, Denmark and Spain, and emerging competition from the U.S. and China in industrial-scale wind manufacture? By contrast, our estimate of 2,200 wind-related jobs per year assumes that about one-half would be export dependent and based on a less competitive marketplace for small-scale wind technologies. Many of the other sectors within the renewable energy sources category would have larger and more sustainable domestic markets.
In any event, the potential for EE dwarfs RE, and wind is a small component of the RE portion.
The projection indicates the potential for almost 50,000 RE jobs in three years (3 x 15,500), which is not consistent with Ontario government projections. These projections include an export component, plus multipliers to include jobs which are dependent upon the renewable energy industry but not technically “green collar” jobs.
Based similarly on the MISI report, Table 9 provides a projection for Ontario jobs in selected renewable energy sources.
Table 9 – Projected Jobs by Selected Renewable Energy Sources for Ontario
Renewable Energy Source |
2030 Total Jobs |
Per Year |
||||
Total |
Export Component |
Domestic |
Industrial Scale Component |
Small Scale Component |
||
Biomass Power |
60,000 |
3,000 |
|
3,000 |
|
3,000 |
Solar |
53,000 |
2,650 |
|
2,650 |
|
2.650 |
Wind |
44,000 |
2,200 |
1,100 |
1,100 |
550 |
550 |
Fuel Cell/ Hydrogen |
39,000 |
1,950 |
|
|
|
|
For comparative purposes the export component has been singled out for wind. Despite the diversity of potential, small-scale wind can reasonably be projected to create less than 2,000 jobs in three years. Aggressive implementation of industrial-scale wind in Ontario could create about 3,000 jobs in the same period. But growth would not likely continue at this rate as there is a limit to the number of industrial wind manufacturing plants that would be required. In this regard it should be noted that Quebec already has an industrial-scale wind manufacturer.
Biomass power is not a part of our illustrative example but is included because of the notable number of jobs involved. The solar and small-scale wind components shown, plus geothermal installations, provide a very attractive, sustainable and scalable industrial and job development opportunity within a domestic market compared to industrial-scale wind.
Conclusion
The Green Alternative Plan is both a pragmatic and principled solution for Ontario’s energy dilemma. GAP achieves the goals of increasing energy supply, controlling costs, and genuinely reducing green house gases within the limits of a clearly defined and manageable program. It allows individual Ontario residents and businesses to participate in green energy solutions without imposing burdensome costs on later generations. And it develops a sustainable economic sector with export potential.
Drawing on public goodwill and environmentally responsible technologies, GAP enables individual Ontario homeowners and families to participate directly as conservers and generators of green energy at little cost to consumers or taxpayers. In the process it develops businesses central to Ontario’s future while strengthening the overall economy.
GAP’s own power is founded on its underlying principles:
- A policy that benefits Ontarians without causing social friction
- An initiative that encourages both individual and social responsibility
- A program that reduces use of fossil fuel for heating as well as electricity
- A fiscally prudent plan that assists individual homeowners while recovering invested capital
- A targeted investment in the domestic renewable energy industry.
The Green Alternative Plan is a model for 21st century government programming, and it will give Ontario pride of place in sustainable energy development.
Very informative indeed. It is pleasing to hear this. When should this take effect? The government is doing their part in energy efficiency matters so the people should also be doing their part. It’s also good to know that homeowners could be entitled to loans if ever. Thanks for sharing this. This site could also be of your interest. Thanks again.
Thank you for your deputation, it was very informative and was nice to see our community take the action in trying to make a difference. Don’t give up in your plan and keep going in the direction to try and get the mentality of the government to make a difference and finally come up with a win win situation for all parties.
Good luck,
Lori Slik
excellent ideas i am interested
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Energy Systems Engineering Technician (Kingston)
Become part of the exciting new field of energy efficiency and sustainable energy systems that is emerging as Canada confronts issues of increasing energy costs and the serious environmental impacts of conventional energy usage.
Our Energy Systems Engineering Technician and Technology graduates will fill the growing needs of employers in this rapidly expanding field. Your work will involve energy auditing and modelling of existing conventional heating and lighting systems and specifying energy efficiency improvements for residential and commercial buildings. You will also be trained in the sizing, specification and implementation of solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and other sustainable energy systems.
Everything that has been said here is precisely what the residents of Scarborough Bluffs have been saying to the powers that be that are trying to install an Industrial Scale Wind Farm in this environmentally sensitive and visually beautiful area. They are not listening because, as you point out, there is money to be made by certain individuals.
Wish all the residents of this area could within the next year get themselves completely self sustainable using other alternative energy sources. This could illustrate how wrong the Wind Farm idea is, indisputably as well as taking away a huge number of potential customers.
Pity the GAP is only a proposal and not a reality now.
Can I copy and publish some of this text in my newspaper?
In That Respect there r surely a lot of details like that to take into consideration
1.) Protecting your home…
2.) […]every so often I come across a site that I actually like to read and this is one[…]…
Well said! – I looked at the Wiki on this and it did not have as good info – thanks! High Waist Shorts
I really like the fresh perpective you did on the problem. Truly was not expecting that when I started off studying. Your concepts had been easy to comprehend that I wondered why I never looked at it prior to. Glad to know that there’s an individual out there that definitely understands what he’s discussing. Great job